Comments on: Mythbusters III http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/ Northern California Golf Association Mon, 22 Mar 2010 10:47:58 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Andy Davis http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/comment-page-1/#comment-3163 Andy Davis Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:14:53 +0000 http://thebacknine.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/#comment-3163 Ed, you just contridicted your own point. You so boldly point out that rolling snake eyes has an associated probability of 1 in 36. And that no matter how many times the dice are thrown, there always is a 1 in 36 chance of hitting it. Then you go on and explain about the lady in Atlantic City who rolled 154 times without hitting a 7, a 1 in 1.56 trillion chance. Yet, according to your snake eyes logic, it shouldn't be a big deal because each roll has a 1 in 6 chance of hitting a 7 regardless of what was rolled before. The 1 in 1.56 trillion odds are EXACTLY WHAT JIM COWAN WAS TRYING TO POINT OUT ABOUT THE 33 HANDICAPPER SHOOTING 64 ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS! The odds of shooting 10 under in two straight days (tourneys) would be roughly 1 in 764,000 according to the chart in the article. On three straight days (tourneys) in would be 1 in 668 million! According to quantum mechanics I have a slim chance of walking right through a solid wall, but when have you heard that happening (magician's exempt)? So I would call that 33 handicapper a cheater and not feel the least bit bothered by it. Ed, you just contridicted your own point. You so boldly point out that rolling snake eyes has an associated probability of 1 in 36. And that no matter how many times the dice are thrown, there always is a 1 in 36 chance of hitting it. Then you go on and explain about the lady in Atlantic City who rolled 154 times without hitting a 7, a 1 in 1.56 trillion chance. Yet, according to your snake eyes logic, it shouldn’t be a big deal because each roll has a 1 in 6 chance of hitting a 7 regardless of what was rolled before. The 1 in 1.56 trillion odds are EXACTLY WHAT JIM COWAN WAS TRYING TO POINT OUT ABOUT THE 33 HANDICAPPER SHOOTING 64 ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS! The odds of shooting 10 under in two straight days (tourneys) would be roughly 1 in 764,000 according to the chart in the article. On three straight days (tourneys) in would be 1 in 668 million! According to quantum mechanics I have a slim chance of walking right through a solid wall, but when have you heard that happening (magician’s exempt)? So I would call that 33 handicapper a cheater and not feel the least bit bothered by it.

]]> By: Ed Brenneman http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/comment-page-1/#comment-2751 Ed Brenneman Sat, 29 Aug 2009 10:07:05 +0000 http://thebacknine.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/#comment-2751 Jim, the chances of rolling snake eyes is 1 in 36. Any gambler will tell you that each time you pick up the dice you have a 1 in 36 chance of rolling snake eyes no matter how many times you have rolled it already. One reason so many people lose money in the casinos is the mistaken belief that the odds turn in their favor for something to happen the more it does not happen. In May Patricia Demauro rolled the dice in an Atlantic City casino 154 times in a row before she rolled a seven. The probability of that happening is 1 in 1.56 trillion but it happened. Even with that high a probability against it happening it does not mean it could not happen a week later, a day, or by the next roller. Nick, your comments opened my eyes to a couple flaws in the handicap system. I am one of those players that do not crumble under the pressure in a golf match. After the first tee shot the nerves are gone and my game flows depending on whether my eye is on and I am on a hot streak or I am off and missing every other shot. The other players be damned. Let them choke. That leaves the door open for me even if I am having a bad day. Now here is the problem. The rules of golf say I must record my scores each time I play but when I play with my friends its for fun. That is not to say that I do not try to play my best and that I do not get frustrated when I make a series of poor shots. I just do not have the same intensity. So do I just arbitrarily take 5 or 10 or 15 or more strokes off my game when I record my scores and become a scratch golfer or a 10 handicap when I am no where near that good? How do I know the proper number of strokes to take off my scores when I record them so people like you will not call me a sandbagger when they choke? Something else you might think about. Your handicap index changes once a month not every score you record. In that month a golfer might find his game and even though he is recording all his scores his handicap is not going down until the end of the month. I am in that situation right now. At the beginning of September I will be a 15 or a 16 for the first time (yippee!! I will be among the slightly better than average golfers). I hope I can continue this trend and get down to a 12 by the time we have our senior mens championships in October so I can compete with the higher caliber players. You will enjoy your successes and the competition more if you quit looking for cheaters and give everyone their due. Jim, the chances of rolling snake eyes is 1 in 36. Any gambler will tell you that each time you pick up the dice you have a 1 in 36 chance of rolling snake eyes no matter how many times you have rolled it already. One reason so many people lose money in the casinos is the mistaken belief that the odds turn in their favor for something to happen the more it does not happen. In May Patricia Demauro rolled the dice in an Atlantic City casino 154 times in a row before she rolled a seven. The probability of that happening is 1 in 1.56 trillion but it happened. Even with that high a probability against it happening it does not mean it could not happen a week later, a day, or by the next roller.

Nick, your comments opened my eyes to a couple flaws in the handicap system. I am one of those players that do not crumble under the pressure in a golf match. After the first tee shot the nerves are gone and my game flows depending on whether my eye is on and I am on a hot streak or I am off and missing every other shot. The other players be damned. Let them choke. That leaves the door open for me even if I am having a bad day. Now here is the problem. The rules of golf say I must record my scores each time I play but when I play with my friends its for fun. That is not to say that I do not try to play my best and that I do not get frustrated when I make a series of poor shots. I just do not have the same intensity. So do I just arbitrarily take 5 or 10 or 15 or more strokes off my game when I record my scores and become a scratch golfer or a 10 handicap when I am no where near that good? How do I know the proper number of strokes to take off my scores when I record them so people like you will not call me a sandbagger when they choke? Something else you might think about. Your handicap index changes once a month not every score you record. In that month a golfer might find his game and even though he is recording all his scores his handicap is not going down until the end of the month. I am in that situation right now. At the beginning of September I will be a 15 or a 16 for the first time (yippee!! I will be among the slightly better than average golfers). I hope I can continue this trend and get down to a 12 by the time we have our senior mens championships in October so I can compete with the higher caliber players. You will enjoy your successes and the competition more if you quit looking for cheaters and give everyone their due.

]]> By: Nick Roscha http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/comment-page-1/#comment-2730 Nick Roscha Tue, 25 Aug 2009 18:38:41 +0000 http://thebacknine.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/#comment-2730 I fail to understand the golfers who say that they shoot better in tournaments "because so much more is on the line." The majority of golfers crumble under the pressure of the big moment, push a drive OB, fat or thin an iron, or leave an important putt short. You see it every week on the PGA Tour and every week at your home course. I'm all for congratulating the winning golfer, but when an 18 handicapper consistently shoots to an 11 during tournaments, it's time to lower that golfer's handicap and rest assured I will not be offering that golfer his full complement of strokes in any friendly side game. I fail to understand the golfers who say that they shoot better in tournaments “because so much more is on the line.” The majority of golfers crumble under the pressure of the big moment, push a drive OB, fat or thin an iron, or leave an important putt short. You see it every week on the PGA Tour and every week at your home course.

I’m all for congratulating the winning golfer, but when an 18 handicapper consistently shoots to an 11 during tournaments, it’s time to lower that golfer’s handicap and rest assured I will not be offering that golfer his full complement of strokes in any friendly side game.

]]> By: Jim Cowan http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/comment-page-1/#comment-2693 Jim Cowan Mon, 17 Aug 2009 21:27:06 +0000 http://thebacknine.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/#comment-2693 Ed, we are going to have to agree to disagree . . . big time! The Handicap System would expect a golfer to play to his handicap in tournaments at the same ratio (1 out of 5) as all other rounds. Not knowing the handicaps of the golfers or the ratings of the tees played, we are still talking about rounds that might be four to five strokes under their handicap. Depending on how much golf they play, these are still "once every couple or few years" types of performances. To do it once is fine. To do it twice in a row is a stretch. To do it five times in a row is a farce. And though their handicap may come down for a time, the impact of these scores will likely go away with the posting of 20 more rounds of golf. It's like trying to roll six or seven straight "snake eyes" with dice. The only way to do it is with loaded dice. Thanks, but again, we are going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Jim Cowan Ed, we are going to have to agree to disagree . . . big time! The Handicap System would expect a golfer to play to his handicap in tournaments at the same ratio (1 out of 5) as all other rounds. Not knowing the handicaps of the golfers or the ratings of the tees played, we are still talking about rounds that might be four to five strokes under their handicap. Depending on how much golf they play, these are still “once every couple or few years” types of performances. To do it once is fine. To do it twice in a row is a stretch. To do it five times in a row is a farce. And though their handicap may come down for a time, the impact of these scores will likely go away with the posting of 20 more rounds of golf. It’s like trying to roll six or seven straight “snake eyes” with dice. The only way to do it is with loaded dice. Thanks, but again, we are going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Jim Cowan

]]> By: Ed Brenneman http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/comment-page-1/#comment-2681 Ed Brenneman Thu, 13 Aug 2009 17:09:24 +0000 http://thebacknine.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/#comment-2681 Sorry Jim, One last note. I just looked at your odds table and it actually helps to make my point. As you go down and across the table it shows that the higher your handicap the better your odds are to outperform your handicap. Ed Sorry Jim,
One last note. I just looked at your odds table and it actually helps to make my point. As you go down and across the table it shows that the higher your handicap the better your odds are to outperform your handicap.

Ed

]]> By: Ed Brenneman http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/comment-page-1/#comment-2679 Ed Brenneman Thu, 13 Aug 2009 08:53:11 +0000 http://thebacknine.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/#comment-2679 Jim, the 33 handicapper followed it up with exactly 64 the next day and came in second to a 24 handicapper who fired a net 124. I congratulate both of them. I would have done it personally but it was a 5 hour day on the course and they weren't in yet. I had to leave. The tournament was broken up into flights; championship (no handicap), first flight (8-14), and second flight (15 and up). The winner of the first flight had a net of 126. Neither of the first or the second flight scores would have been fair to pit against the championship flight which was won with a score of 143. But that is my point. Golfers are all over the place with there scores over a year. Sometimes everything lines up for the high handicapper and he plays like he knows what he is doing and then as quickly as his game came it goes. It happens with professionals too that's why even Tiger Woods fails to make the cut sometimes and other times nobody can touch him. And believe it or not it usually happens one way or the other when the most is on the line. I have no doubt that there are some people out there that cheat the system, but as is the nature of golf they can't do it all the time. So to Jerry Woomer, Colin Campbell and the rest I say quit spoiling peoples major golf moments because you can't stand to loose. Play your best, enjoy the game, gve the winners their due and you will feel better about it all. And as to your question Jim, if they do it once, twice, or five times in a row they have just defied the odds and their handicaps will drop because those scores will be recorded. Jim, the 33 handicapper followed it up with exactly 64 the next day and came in second to a 24 handicapper who fired a net 124. I congratulate both of them. I would have done it personally but it was a 5 hour day on the course and they weren’t in yet. I had to leave. The tournament was broken up into flights; championship (no handicap), first flight (8-14), and second flight (15 and up). The winner of the first flight had a net of 126. Neither of the first or the second flight scores would have been fair to pit against the championship flight which was won with a score of 143. But that is my point. Golfers are all over the place with there scores over a year. Sometimes everything lines up for the high handicapper and he plays like he knows what he is doing and then as quickly as his game came it goes. It happens with professionals too that’s why even Tiger Woods fails to make the cut sometimes and other times nobody can touch him. And believe it or not it usually happens one way or the other when the most is on the line. I have no doubt that there are some people out there that cheat the system, but as is the nature of golf they can’t do it all the time. So to Jerry Woomer, Colin Campbell and the rest I say quit spoiling peoples major golf moments because you can’t stand to loose. Play your best, enjoy the game, gve the winners their due and you will feel better about it all. And as to your question Jim, if they do it once, twice, or five times in a row they have just defied the odds and their handicaps will drop because those scores will be recorded.

]]> By: Jim Cowan http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/comment-page-1/#comment-2674 Jim Cowan Tue, 11 Aug 2009 15:34:16 +0000 http://thebacknine.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/#comment-2674 Ed, thank you for your comment. What if the 33-handicapper followed up his 64 with another 64 the next day in the tournament? Then did it again in the next big tournament? Then the next? That is the point of the table. Such rounds are supposed to be recorded once every several years. What if they are commonplace for a golfer everytime there is a big tournament? The Handicap System gives everybody one free pass per year. That is, every golfer is granted one low T-score per year without blinking an eye. It is when there are at least two in a given year that the scoring record is reviewed with greater scrutiny. And it is when they become the rule, not the exception, that a golfer is abusing the System. Thanks again - Jim Cowan Ed, thank you for your comment. What if the 33-handicapper followed up his 64 with another 64 the next day in the tournament? Then did it again in the next big tournament? Then the next? That is the point of the table. Such rounds are supposed to be recorded once every several years. What if they are commonplace for a golfer everytime there is a big tournament? The Handicap System gives everybody one free pass per year. That is, every golfer is granted one low T-score per year without blinking an eye. It is when there are at least two in a given year that the scoring record is reviewed with greater scrutiny. And it is when they become the rule, not the exception, that a golfer is abusing the System. Thanks again – Jim Cowan

]]> By: Ed Brenneman http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/comment-page-1/#comment-2667 Ed Brenneman Mon, 10 Aug 2009 08:54:59 +0000 http://thebacknine.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/#comment-2667 First I need to qualify something I said earlier about trying to post all my scores. The scores I sometimes did not post were those embarrassing 100 plus scores which would raise not lower my handicap. I haven't done that in a few years though. Now to you cry babies. Don't play if you can't congratulate people when they have a great round. Everyone does it now and then. One night in league, playing alternate shot, my partner and I scored even par for the nine holes. I was so proud. Then some jerk says, "That's why I'm not going to sign up for league again." Good riddance!! People like him spoil the game for everyone. I just played in a tourney where a 33 handicapper shot a net 64. I wish I knew him so I could have patted him on the back and wished him luck in the second round. Odds are just numbers and they don't mean things won't happen. What were the odds that Tom Watson would be in the lead or tied for the lead all four rounds of the British Open? First I need to qualify something I said earlier about trying to post all my scores. The scores I sometimes did not post were those embarrassing 100 plus scores which would raise not lower my handicap. I haven’t done that in a few years though. Now to you cry babies. Don’t play if you can’t congratulate people when they have a great round. Everyone does it now and then. One night in league, playing alternate shot, my partner and I scored even par for the nine holes. I was so proud. Then some jerk says, “That’s why I’m not going to sign up for league again.” Good riddance!! People like him spoil the game for everyone. I just played in a tourney where a 33 handicapper shot a net 64. I wish I knew him so I could have patted him on the back and wished him luck in the second round. Odds are just numbers and they don’t mean things won’t happen. What were the odds that Tom Watson would be in the lead or tied for the lead all four rounds of the British Open?

]]> By: colin campbell http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/comment-page-1/#comment-2387 colin campbell Tue, 09 Jun 2009 02:36:53 +0000 http://thebacknine.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/#comment-2387 Sandbaggers go buy a trophy instead of stealing them - just played in a club tournie and sure enough Mr 18 hcap turns up and shoots a 61 on a par 71 course. -10 on his hcap!!!! Please fix the automated 20game system to drop these guys hcaps imediately take away the personal "sandbagging" statements and slaash their hcap. Sandbaggers go buy a trophy instead of stealing them – just played in a club tournie and sure enough Mr 18 hcap turns up and shoots a 61 on a par 71 course. -10 on his hcap!!!!

Please fix the automated 20game system to drop these guys hcaps imediately take away the personal “sandbagging” statements and slaash their hcap.

]]> By: Scott B http://www.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/comment-page-1/#comment-1138 Scott B Fri, 10 Oct 2008 21:10:07 +0000 http://thebacknine.ncga.org/2006/10/03/mythbusters-iii/#comment-1138 Joe H, You may be thinking of this guy, Dean Knuth (former USGA Handicap official), a.k.a. "The Pope of Slope," who has several articles about handicapping and sandbagging. This is the main site: http://www.popeofslope.com/index.html And this is the direct link to a table of odds: http://www.popeofslope.com/sandbagging/odds.html A lot of other interesting stuff throughout the site... Joe H,

You may be thinking of this guy, Dean Knuth (former USGA Handicap official), a.k.a. “The Pope of Slope,” who has several articles about handicapping and sandbagging.

This is the main site:

http://www.popeofslope.com/index.html

And this is the direct link to a table of odds:

http://www.popeofslope.com/sandbagging/odds.html

A lot of other interesting stuff throughout the site…

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